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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However the current field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still