Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
