A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
